Turning an unowned risk into investable resilience
Madrid's problem is not a shortage of solutions. It is that the risk is unowned, unpriced and never seen whole, and that the response resets with every election cycle.
Our long-term goal is to create new collaborative governance and collective intelligence infrastructure, along with new financial arrangements and accountability systems, to enable multi-actor initiatives that are adequate in speed and scale to protect Madrid's value at risk from the cascading impacts of extreme heat — as a proxy for a changing climate.
Today
Madrid's heat risk is an unmanaged, fragmented liability.
- Risk invisible, unpriced and unowned across sectors
- Isolated actors solving isolated pieces of the problem
- Political will that resets with every election cycle
- Reactive, short-term, one-off responses
Near Future
A coordinated system can turn that risk into shared, investable resilience.
- A shared, quantified picture of exposure and value at risk
- A coalition aligned around shared outcomes, not individual deals
- An institution built to outlast political cycles
- A sustained, coordinated response that compounds instead of resetting
Theory of Change
Diagnosis
Legible risk
Before anything moves, the risk has to be legible: what is at stake, who is exposed, and what inaction costs. This is the ground the Cascading Risks and Values at Risk sections lay.
Horizon 1
Crystallisation & proof of possibility
Make the risk visible, bring in the actors who carry it, and prove the model works before asking anyone else to adopt it.
- Move four tracks at once — none works without the other three:
- Demand: Mobilise risk holders and build social and political appetite.
- Data: Structure the portfolio and the evidence base underneath it.
- Ecosystem: Align actors across the coalition.
- Capital: Mobilise aligned funding.
- Demonstrators close Horizon 1Real places where the model is proven technically, financially and with the people who live there — before anyone else is asked to adopt it.
Horizon 2
Signal of conversion
Convert that proof into the policy, delivery capacity and institutional standards that make cooling Madrid's default, not its exception.
- Policy & mandate: Budget, regulation and mandate built on what Horizon 1 proved.
- Scaled delivery: Workforce, supply chains and finance sized for the whole city.
- Ongoing learning: A feedback loop that keeps the model current as conditions change.
Coordinated, Institutionalised & Self-sustained Climate Resilience
Theory of change: legible risk is funnelled through four tracks of work, fans out into four capabilities at its narrowest point, and widens into the outcomes of Horizon 2.
- Hazard and Impact
- Value-at-Risk Quantification
- Critical Risk Holders
- Track 1: Demand Formation
- Track 2: Data & portfolio Structuring
- Track 3: Ecosystem Orchestration
- Track 4: Capital Orchestration
- Multi-stakeholder Coordination
- Cooling Archetypes (portfolio design)
- Implementation Capability
- Outreach & Narrative
- Hard Politics & Policy
- Scaled interventions & delivery capacity
- Learning & registry system
- Innovation ecosystem
- Institutional Adoption
- Multi-capital value creation
Our approach
An Outcome Accelerator for systemic change
A structured, multi-year, multi-actor programme that starts from whole-city outcomes — then orchestrates the whole system with flexible finance and shared accountability. Six capabilities work together as one platform.
Outcomes focus
Start from defined, whole-city outcomes — not individual projects — and accelerate toward collective intelligence.
Coalition(s) of actors
Public, private, civic and financial actors implementing and experimenting together.
Portfolio of options
Scalable interventions combining technology, nature and design, contributing to shared outcomes.
Finance model
Outcome-enabling mechanisms: cooling bonds, outcome contracts, procurement and risk-sharing.
Learning system
Feedback loops and shared sensing that make the city's climate risk and response visible and legible.
Institutional innovation
Designing new governance and institutional arrangements that help resilience commitments outlast political cycles.
